CEO Russell Craig Ellwanger sold 66,964 shares at $215.02, reducing his directly held shares by 8.6%, with the transaction price sitting 32.8% below the 90-day high of $319.94 and 16.8% above the 90-day low of $184.14. A $14.4M sale by a CEO just 22 days before earnings — his first-ever recorded sale on this ticker — carries weight regardless of the strong analyst consensus; insiders at this level rarely liquidate this size without a view on near-term risk or valuation ceiling. Bull case: stock holds above $199.63 (30-day low) and earnings on 2026-08-04 beat the $0.77 EPS consensus, potentially reclaiming the $250+ range; bear case: a miss or guidance cut with the CEO already out the door breaks $184.14 and accelerates the drawdown from the $319.94 peak.

Where it could go — Our 7-8 conviction officer sells: only 34% beat SPY at 30d (avg -7.3% vs SPY, n=119); bear breaks $184.14, bull holds $199.63.