Director Daniel J. Nova bought 40,000 HOG shares at $24.57 for $983K — his verified first-ever purchase on this ticker — lifting his stake from 7,605 to 47,605 shares (+526%), with entry sitting mid-range between the 90d low of $22.23 and high of $28.77. A director committing nearly $1M in a single first-ever buy, more than quintupling his position, is a meaningful personal capital commitment that goes well beyond token accumulation. Bull case: reclaim of $28.77 90d high opens path toward prior range highs; bear case: a break below $22.23 would invalidate the entry thesis and signal further structural weakness.

Where it could go — Our 5-6 conviction director buys: 65% beat SPY at 30d (n=215, avg +8.5% vs SPY); bull holds $24.00, bear breaks $22.23.