The hedge fund reduced its direct stake by $147M (-24.5%), selling at $77.25, a price 9.9% below the 90-day high. Paulson has now sold over $200M in AAMI shares in under a year, with no other major institutional buyers reported in the last 60 days. Bear: This exit represents a significant block of shares; watch for a secondary offering announcement or a company buyback to absorb the overhang.

Where it could go — A second large-scale PE exit typically leads to stock digestion over 30-60 days; watch for a buyback announcement or new institutional buyer to provide support.